Bill Bengen Revisits The 4% Rule Using Shiller's CAPE Ratio, …

Dec 17, 2020 · In fact, the average SAFEMAX for all retirees for the years 1926 to 1990 was 7.0%—much higher than the “worst case” scenario of 4.5%. It seemed to me, therefore, that it would be useful to ...

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Bill Bengen Revisits The 4% Rule Using Shiller's CAPE Ratio, …

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Bill Bengen Revisits The 4% Rule Using Shiller's CAPE Ratio, …

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Dec 17, 2020 · This chart plots the Shiller CAPE (the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500) against the “safe” historical maximum withdrawal rate for the first day of every …

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The 4% Rule For Retirement Spending Is Now The 4.7% Rule

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Oct 23, 2023 · That procedure became known as "the 4% rule." Bengen's revision takes the work of financial adviser Michael Kitces using the CAPE Ratio (appraising the stock market by …

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Revisiting The 4% Rule - Rockland Trust

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becomes an $84,000 withdrawal after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase but just $58,000 with a 2% increase. To measure market valuation, Bengen used the Shiller CAPE, …

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Revisiting The 4% Rule - Using Shiller CAPE Ratio & Inflation

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Bill Bengen Revisits The 4% Rule Using Shiller's CAPE Ratio, Michael Kitces's Research. The article is worth a read, but I'll do my best to summarize his findings, as well as providing links …

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Articles By William Bengen - Financial Advisor

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Bill Bengen Revisits The 4% Rule Using Shiller's CAPE Ratio, Michael Kitces's Research. by William Bengen. Inflation is a key factor regarding safer retirement withdrawal numbers.

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Is A 4% Withdrawal Rate TOO Safe? Or Not Safe Enough?

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Oct 28, 2020 · Bengen weighs in: Bill Bengen Revisits The 4% Rule Using Shiller’s CAPE Ratio, Michael Kitces’s Research [Financial Advisor] – “How do you determine the “safe” portfolio …

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William Bengen - Wikipedia

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William P. Bengen is a retired financial adviser who first articulated the 4% withdrawal rate ("Four percent rule") as a rule of thumb for withdrawal rates from retirement savings; [1] it is …

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The 4% Rule For Retirement Withdrawal Rate – A Revisitation

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Apr 9, 2021 · The famous “4 percent rule” refers to the maximum safe withdrawal rate observed by financial advisor and retirement researcher William Bengen for a 30-year retirement with a …

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'Inflation Is The Big Wild Card': Even Inventor Bill Bengen Is ...

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In 1994, rookie financial adviser Bill Bengen was looking for a rule of thumb to give his clients on how much they could safely withdraw from their assets each year. He found that 4% — …

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Insights On Using The 4% Withdrawal Rule From Its Creator

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Bill Bengen explains why he now suggests a 4.5% withdrawal rate and what the biggest threat to his withdrawal strategy is. ... The chart below compares the cyclically adjusted price-earnings …

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The Inventor Of The '4% Rule' Just Changed It - MarketWatch

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Nov 3, 2020 · Opinion: The inventor of the ‘4% rule’ just changed it Bill Bengen says the now-iconic rule was always treated too simplistically Last Updated: Nov. 3, 2020 at 12:53 p.m. ET …

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How Inflation And Valuation Affect Safe Withdrawal Rates

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Dec 17, 2021 · Bill Bengen builds off his groundbreaking 1994 research that led to the creation of the 4% rule. ... But there can also be outlier situations where even though the CAPE Ratio was …

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Beyond The 4% Rule--Conversation With Bill Bengen | Live Q&A

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Tonight we have the pleasure of speaking with the father of the 4% Rule, Bill Bengen.Bill's recent paper: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/choosing-the-highest-sa...

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Bill Bengen: Revisiting Safe Withdrawal Rates - Morningstar

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Dec 14, 2021 · The creator of the 4% guideline discusses the implications of higher inflation and elevated equity valuations for new retirees.

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FAQs about Bill Bengen Revisits The 4% Rule Using Shiller's CAPE Ratio, … Coupon?

Are Shiller Cape valuation metric and safe initial withdrawal rates negatively correlated?

Retirement researcher Michael Kitces concluded that the Shiller CAPE valuation metric and safe initial withdrawal rates are indeed strongly negatively correlated (specifically, -0.74) but that the 4% rule should still hold using a 60/40 portfolio. ...

What is Bengen's '4 percent rule'?

Bengen examined historical returns data for a portfolio of stocks and bonds to determine the optimal withdrawal rate that avoided the worst-case scenario of portfolio liquidation over the course of a 30-year retirement time frame. Bengen’s original result was nicknamed the “4 Percent Rule”—although Bengen did not call it that. ...

What is Bengen's 4% withdrawal rate?

Bengen published his findings in a paper that year, and before long, his theory became an industry-wide rule. For two decades, the 4% rule served as the rule of thumb for financial planners and retirees in determining their withdrawal rate. Part of what made the rule so popular is it was straightforward to understand and follow. ...

Why did William Bengen set a retirement withdrawal rate?

Financial planner William Bengen wanted to establish a retirement withdrawal rate he could tell his clients so that they wouldn't outlive their savings after retiring. Previously, advisors had used vague rules of thumb for retirement withdrawal rates without any strong underlying math. ...

Is the CAPE ratio predictive of the safe withdrawal rate?

Fortunately, real returns during the first 15 years of retirement (which the CAPE ratio predicts most effectively) are themselves predictive of the safe withdrawal rate for the entire 30-year retirement horizon, because those first 15 years are where the sequence of return risk for retirees is highest. ...

Is 30 years too long for a CAPE ratio?

While such conservative return estimates might make sense over a 10- to 20-year time horizon (since research has shown that CAPE ratios are strongly predictive of returns over that time range), extending those assumptions out to 30 years is arguably unrealistic. ...